@mightyoakDo you trust your gut or your head more?
Depends on the situation, and I don't think they can be separated anyway, e.g. with the life experience I have--too early, so much, varied, when I do have a quick, almost imperceptible sense of why something is happening, if I take it apart later, 'something' tipped me off (from my head, the environment, how I put it together really fast), so while 'others' see me as having some special ability to size something up, rare, or whatever, it's head/experience 'and then' the hunch.
Back in 2006 or so the Market crashed here in The States. I saw it coming. One day, 'seemingly' out of the blue, I told my husband to immediately change our 401K (not sizable, but still important) and put everything in government bonds, other more secure areas, and pull everything from anything risky.
He listened. All I told him was that I had noticed people were miserable, but all of a sudden I understood how America was doing financially as we're a Capitalistic nation, and this 'pall' that I felt, palpable, reflected, 'trouble coming.'
While the mail carrier and others lost 20,000 and far more, we lost something like $25, no exaggeration.
That might seem like 'gut' but I had been paying attention without recognizing it; I had lived through the 70s recession and the 80s downward spiral and so on, so I had that to draw from--whether I knew it, consciously, or not.
Hope that makes sense.
Do you consider yourself, over all, a self-disciplined person or someone who is fortunate to have--just examples: good health, close friends to depend on, a loving mate or family members, secure job, simple needs, no disabilities of any magnitude, and therefore can pretty much fly by the seat of your pants or be spontaneous in many areas, enjoying yourself and not paying a price for it?