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Haha. "Discuss." The name of this thread is hilarious. "Plausible." Haha. Sorry I find everything funny. I don't know if you were trying to be funny but it made me laugh.

On a darker note. We're all going to die. Not really, but really. I'm not that concerned about the world failing. Let it be a lesson for us to learn how to farm again. Did you know in the 1800's like 80% of the population was comprised of farmers? I would like to harvest some grains please.
 

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Next Great Depression? MIT researchers predict

Do you think it's plausible, crazy, going to happen, going to happen at a much slower rate- what? :tongue: Let's discuss.
I read MIT researchers as MBTI researchers and thought hhmmm, they're getting a bit outside their field of expertise aren't they?

Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it's about the future.
 

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@wondersueak

Just read that article. I don't really know enough to give an informed response. But what I said before in jest is true - predicting the future is difficult.

Also, as one of the older folk here, i can say "i've heard it all before" (or heard similar). When I was a child i recall hearing the forecast that, with oil being used up at the rate it was, there'd be virtually no cars in existence by the year 2000. ie driving would just be for a tiny, tiny elite. Of course it didn't happen that way.

The problem is one can always take a current trend, extrapolate it into the future and come up with a dramatic conclusion. But in reality other factors come into play. So, in the case of cars - new oil fields got developed, cars were made more fuel efficient, new technology was developed (eg electric cars).

Slightly off topic perhaps.....

I think there's something in our psyche that somehow "enjoys" dire predictions for the future. We somehow like it when someone tells us "unless things change X will happen within the next 30 years". This, i think, can come out in religious beliefs. Eg the JWs' constant warning that Armageddon is just around the corner or the Christians who believe that "the Rapture" will happen any day now ("are you Rapture ready?")

Bottom line from me: Any detailed forecast from me isn't likely to be any better than anyone else's - but somehow i'm cautiously optimistic for the future of humankind.
 

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MOTM July 2012
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i think it is going to happen, but the "when" is in question. if you follow the current economic trends, for instance in Europe and the United States, unless some totally unexpected event occurs that throws it out of its natural sequence (which is very possible), there is no other ultimate destination. i believe the collapse will lead to takeover by a "one-world-government" style dictatorship which will consolidate all the resources in the world and dole them out to allies and refuse them to "enemies of the state."
 

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@wondersueak

Just read that article. I don't really know enough to give an informed response. But what I said before in jest is true - predicting the future is difficult.

Also, as one of the older folk here, i can say "i've heard it all before" (or heard similar). When I was a child i recall hearing the forecast that, with oil being used up at the rate it was, there'd be virtually no cars in existence by the year 2000. ie driving would just be for a tiny, tiny elite. Of course it didn't happen that way.

The problem is one can always take a current trend, extrapolate it into the future and come up with a dramatic conclusion. But in reality other factors come into play. So, in the case of cars - new oil fields got developed, cars were made more fuel efficient, new technology was developed (eg electric cars).

Slightly off topic perhaps.....

I think there's something in our psyche that somehow "enjoys" dire predictions for the future. We somehow like it when someone tells us "unless things change X will happen within the next 30 years". This, i think, can come out in religious beliefs. Eg the JWs' constant warning that Armageddon is just around the corner or the Christians who believe that "the Rapture" will happen any day now ("are you Rapture ready?")

Bottom line from me: Any detailed forecast from me isn't likely to be any better than anyone else's - but somehow i'm cautiously optimistic for the future of humankind.

^^
exactly what Zech said.......
 
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I've always found this guy's forecasts on global economics interesting. >

Forecasting, Tracking and Analyzing Global Trends | Trends Research Institute

There is no fixing the economy the way I see it. I believe the international bankers know this and are going for broke. The economy is like a bald tire with wire threads showing that's had so many holes patched and plugged and filled with so much gunky fix-a-flat that it could pop at anytime and it's hard to predict WHEN it will pop. :/

2030 though ????? No way. Even 2020 would be a miracle.
 
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im building my empire in advance lol.... and if it doesnt happen then i guess i will have to settle for being a billionaire. im pretty sure the diffrence between it happening for real this time and when older generations heard this is half a billion people in china moving into the middle class and wanting to act like americas (consume and screw the consequences) and our buddies the Indians with their half a billion moving up in social mobility. im 100% sure we will see WW3 if only because china is hording all the natural minerals we need for our electronics. history shows we dont make changes till we're "knee deep in blood". i have nothing against china (we're business partners lol) but i know a clash when i see one. civilizations rise to their highest heights (in arts, sciences etc) then collapse (usually from within) then we have "dark ages" then the cycle repeats over and over and over... to think we're any different is crazy. just wait till americans standards of living plummet, hope for a soft landing (americas can handle that and adapt) and pray its not a hard landing (riots, civil wars, real class warfare) if things continue the way they are today (bad education, debt so big most cant comprehend it, 56% of the nations wealth in the hands of 1% of the population) then yeah... we;re in for some interesting times. we'll know what path society has picked by 2020.
 

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Silly economists. The world is supposed to end this December, not in 2030. Get it right!

Anyway...I'm with @Zech with this one. A lot of startling predictions have been made in past, but I don't think any of the really bad "society will end as we know it" ones have come true--correct me if I'm wrong.

It'll be tense for a while, but things get better.
 

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I read MIT researchers as MBTI researchers and thought hhmmm, they're getting a bit outside their field of expertise aren't they?
For a moment, I saw us all getting really, really sad at the same time. A sort of melancholy flash-mob happening.

Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it's about the future.
Perfectly true. Which is why they always qualify these things with, "If.....doesn't change" or something like that. They aren't really predicting THE future, just a possible future based on current factors (which can and will probably change!).
 
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Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it's about the future.
Perfectly true. Which is why they always qualify these things with, "If.....doesn't change" or something like that. They aren't really predicting THE future, just a possible future based on current factors (which can and will probably change!).
Fair comment. First para from the article in question:

A renowned Australian research scientist says a study from researchers at MIT claiming the world could suffer from a "global economic collapse" and "precipitous population decline" if people continue to consume the world's resources at the current pace is still on track, nearly 40 years after it was first produced.
Slight tangent - i've been thinking about significant things that have happened but so far as i'm aware weren't widely predicted:

the fall of communism in Soviet Union & eastern Europe around 1990
the rise of the internet starting about 20 years ago
the Arab Spring which began December 2010

I'm sure there are other examples i'm overlooking. But point is that as well as forecasts being made which are often wrong, we also have significant things happening that weren't forecast at all (or not widely forecast).
 
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